Tuesday, March 17, 2009

On-Line Forex Trading Tips | SIGMA forex


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Thursday, March 5, 2009

More regulation is the wrong way to tackle the recession

They may not agree on much,but the EU governments managed to agree this weekend that more regulation of financial markets is needed. This focus on regulation has now become the default position,along with the more populist campaign against bankers’ bonuses, of governments which do not know what to do to fix the recession.

There is a paradox in the current recession, but it is not the often quoted one about ‘the paradox of thrift’. The true paradox is that governments are calling for more regulation and less risk,when it should be the other way round. The avoidance of risk, along with the desire to make more money, was behind the rapid growth of hedge funds. By spreading the risk of investments across the world economy the intention was to avoid over exposure to any one group of investments. These hedge funds attracted wealth on a grand scale.

Meanwhile, the latest figures on venture capital in the UK show that relatively tiny amounts of money have been put into innovative new businesses. The culture of risk avoidance, which is endemic in the UK and not limited to the economy, is a far greater threat to the future of the economy than under regulated markets.
The underlying problem of the world economy is the disequilibrium between the increasingly productive east and the underproductive west,hence the growing indebtedness of the west to the east. The focus on regulation is the wrong policy at the wrong time.

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British Pound Tumbles 200 Points to 1.80 as UK's Darling Sounds the Recession Alarm

The British pound started out on a weak note at the start of trading on Sunday, as the currency plunged 200 points versus the greenback following the release of comments by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling from an interview with the Guardian newspaper.
During the interview, Mr. Darling said that the UK economic conditions “are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years” and that the slowdown may be “more profound and long-lasting than people thought.” Looking at the latest economic data, there’s little reason to doubt Mr. Darling’s dour sentiment. The August reading of the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector reflected a contraction in business activity for the fourth consecutive month, though the index did rise slightly to 45.9 from 44.1.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s reading of mortgage approvals fell to 33,000 in July, marking the lowest level since record-keeping began in 1999. Overall, there are literally no bright spots on the horizon for the UK economy, but nevertheless, the Bank of England is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.00 percent on Thursday. However, it is also widely known that the central bank has sought to maintain a hawkish stance against inflation in an effort to keep the public’s expectations in check. Thus, a rate cut may not be on hand this week, but with Credit Suisse overnight index swaps pricing in over 75bps worth of cuts within the next 12 months, it’s simply a matter of time before the Bank Rate comes down.



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UK recession unlike any other, says Gordon Brown

Gordon Brown said today that the recession now gripping Britain was unlike any others since the Great Depression, caused not by domestic economic mismanagement but by a "complete market failure" set off by the sub-prime crisis in the United States.

As statisticians confirmed the UK's first recession since 1991 and the largest quarterly contraction in 28 years, Mr Brown - who spent ten years as Chancellor under Tony Blair before taking over as Prime Minister - said co-ordinated international action would be the key to lifing the global economy quickly out of the downturn.
And he insisted that he and his Chancellor, Alistair Darling, had had no choice but to commit billions of pounds of public money to shoring up the banking system because the "cost of inaction" would have been much greater.
"Every recession in the last 60 years in Britain has been caused by inflation, domestically generated, caused by wages getting out of control on some occasions, by interest rates having to rise," Mr Brown told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
"This is a completely different type of event, as everyone recognises. This results from a global banking crisis. So America's already in recession. Germany's been in recession for some time. The euro area is in recession. It's a global financial crisis caused by irresponsible lending practices."
Mr Brown was speaking shortly before the Office of National Statistics announced that Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) had contracted by 1.5 per cent in the final quarter of 2008, a significantly higher contraction than economists had expected only a few weeks ago. That was the worst figure for a single quarter since 1980, during Margaret Thatcher's first term in office, when Britain's manufacturing sector was devastated, and presaged a similarly disastrous rise in unemployment.

The figure drove sterling to a 23-year low against the dollar under $1.36.
“Coming out of America in the next few weeks will be a major, major stimulus package that will help the rest of the world. Other countries in Europe are about to make decisions themselves about the future and I think that is very, very important as well,” Mr Brown said.“If for example China could create more domestic expansion itself, then the world would be going in harmony, going in tandem, to deal with ... what is a synchronised banking failure.”
Mr Brown declined to detail the level of taxpayers' exposure to the financial crisis through the multibillion pound schemes to bail out the banking sector, despite a call from the Treasury Select Committee for the Government to come clean. "Just think of the cost of doing nothing," he said. "No saver lost any money even though banks were in danger of collapsing all over the place in Britain. We stopped the banks from collapse."
David Cameron, the Tory leader Mr Cameron, warned yesterday that Britain could soon have to go to the International Monetary Fund for cash, repeating the action of James Callaghan’s Labour Government in 1976, because of the parlous state of public finances. But Mr Brown dismissed his comments as “ridiculous behaviour”, adding: "The situation in Britain is this: that we have low public debt, we have low inflation, wages are under control.”
He also lashed out at prominent investors such as hedge fund boss Jim Rogers, who have been giving dire assessments of the prospects for UK plc and sterling. “If you think we are going to build our policy around the comments of a few speculators who want to make money out of Britain then you are very, very wrong indeed,” he said. “The decisions we take about the future of the economy are based on what is right for Britain.”

Asked to identify the mistakes he made as Chancellor, Mr Brown said that economic policy had been focused on inflation. "We believed, rightly so, that we could get inflation down in this country and with low interest rates and a low inflation economy it could continue to grow.
"We also believed that there was a possibility of institutional failure in the banking and financial system so we did all sorts of exercises, simulation exercises. We had the FSA put in place - I think people recognise it's one of the best regulators, not one of the worst - but what we didn't see, nobody saw, was the possibility of complete market failure, that markets seized up across the world."


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Gordon Brown refuses to apologize over recession despite plea by Alistair Darling

The Prime Minister has rejected pleas from Cabinet colleagues and will not use a speech in Washington on Wednesday to issue any sort of apology for the role he played while Chancellor in allowing banks and the City to operate unfettered.

In a candid interview in the Telegraph, Alistair Darling said that the Government and regulators had “lots of lessons” to learn from the events that led to the economic crash.
The Chancellor’s frank admission that there is a need for ministers to show “humility” will have irritated the Prime Minister as it is in stark contrast to his own view of the crisis. And it exposes a potentially damaging rift between Mr Brown and his Chancellor.
Mr Darling’s handling of the Treasury brief in recent months has been called into question. Last week he had to admit he did not know about the scale of Sir Fred Goodwin’s £693,000 a year pension deal which had been waved through by one of his junior ministers.
Mr Brown is meeting Barack Obama in Washington to discuss the global economic recovery plan that the Prime Minister hopes to kick start when he hosts next month’s world leaders G20 gathering in London.
But the trip threatened to be overshadowed by the row over whether Mr Brown should apologise and show some contrition. It is known that some Cabinet colleagues have been privately urging him to make an apology of sorts.

However, the Prime Minister has rejected outright the need to make any sort of admission.
In direct contrast to his Chancellor, he defiantly believes that the problems were unique and were not the fault of the system he put in place and presided over while at the Treasury for a decade.
John Kingman, the head of UK Financial Investments and a former close ally of Mr Brown at the Treasury, has added to the pressure on Mr Brown by admitting that the tri-partite system of City regulation had not worked.
He told the Treasury Select Committee in London: “There are issues around how the Treasury and the regulator identified problems.”
When asked whether he was reluctant to admit that the system that Labour put in place in 1997 had been a massive failure, he replied: “I don’t think I am massively reluctant.”
Mr Brown has defended his actions as Chancellor and argues that the current recession is not typical of previous downturns caused by high inflation and rising interest rates. Instead it is a banking crisis that has been caused by poor decisions by bankers such as when RBS took over the Dutch bank ABN Amro in 2007 and took on board a slew of poor sub-prime debt.
The Prime Minister also knows that if he admits he made mistakes he will hand a massive propaganda coup to the Conservatives.

But Mr Darling told the Telegraph: “There are a lot of lessons to be learnt by regulators, governments, all of us. The key thing that went wrong was that a culture was allowed to develop over the last 15 years or so where the relationship between what people did and what they got went way out of alignment, especially at the top end.
”If there is a fault, it is our collective responsibility. All of us have to have the humility to accept that over the last few years, things got out of alignment.”
He added: "There are some very hard questions to be asked about the regulatory model we have operated for the last few years.
”The model of us saying to them [the banks] ‘you say it’s OK to us and we’ll go along with it’ has failed. You should regulate according to risk... financial services have to be properly run and supervised.”
As well as today’s White House meeting, Mr Brown has also been invited to address a joint session of Congress on Wednesday - only the fifth British premier to make such a speech.
He is on a mission to deliver a “clear message” to Mr Obama from Europe about the need for urgent worldwide action to counter the economic crisis.
Mr Brown believes that, working together, the UK and US can persuade other leading economies to sign up to a co-ordinated programme of action at next month’s G20 summit in London that can restore confidence among consumers, companies and banks worldwide.
In a change to the anticipated schedule of events for today, the White House indicated that Mr Obama would not hold a full press conference with Mr Brown, but the two leaders would instead appear in front of the media in the Oval Office.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown today called for concerted international action to improve the regulation of the global financial industry as he prepared for his first meeting with Barack Obama since he became US President.

Speaking to National Public Radio in Washington, Mr Brown said it was time to “clean up the banking system” and create international standards on banking transparency, accountability and pay.
Shared rules would allow the international community to freeze out jurisdictions which do not live up to the standards and deal with so-called “shadow banks”, he said. And Global co-operation on restructuring the banking system would create the confidence to allow recovery from the economic downturn.
Mr Brown will later today become the first European leader to hold talks at the White House with Mr Obama since his inauguration in January.
The international economic crisis will be top of the agenda for the talks, with Mr Brown hoping to secure a clear signal that the President is ready to back an international economic rescue package when the G20 group of major economies meet in London on April 2.
Plans for a formal press conference following the talks have been downgraded by the White House to a brief appearance before the cameras by the two men inside the Oval Office.
Mr Brown will on Wednesday issue a plea for America to resist protectionism as he addresses both houses of Congress.

Ahead of the meeting, he spelt out his message in his interview with National Public Radio’s Morning Edition - the most listened-to radio news programme in the US - in which he predicted that recovery from the economic downturn could come “with some speed” if nations around the world are prepared to work together to restore confidence in the banking system.
Mr Brown declined to say when he thought the economy would return to growth.
But he said: “This is a global problem. It needs global solutions. There is a global banking collapse that we are dealing with.
”If we could have the same standards and the same rules that we are about to apply in the USA and in Britain to apply to other countries around the world, the same standards of disclosure and accountability and remuneration, I think the confidence in the banking system will be restored.”

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Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Tyco International Surges After Profit Tops Estimates

- Tyco International Ltd. rose the most in more than six years in New York trading after the world’s largest maker of security systems posted first-quarter profit and sales that exceeded analysts’ estimates.
Tyco International climbed $3.93, or 19 percent, to $24.27 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the biggest percentage increase since July 26, 2002. The shares are up 12 percent so far this year.
Sales excluding acquisitions, divestitures and currency effects fell 1 percent, beating the company’s November forecast of as much as a 3 percent decline. Restructuring and other expenses declined from a year earlier. Tyco raised its estimate for cost-cutting charges this year to as much as $150 million from $50 million as it shrinks to cope with the slowing economy.
Better-than-expected results “were driven by substantially better operating margins,” Nigel Coe, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note to clients. “With growth in the recurring revenue and modest backlog build, this result will likely be viewed in a favorable light.” He has a “buy” rating on Tyco.
Profit from continuing operations declined 24 percent to $272 million, or 57 cents a share, from $360 million, or 72 cents, a year earlier, the Bermuda-based company said today in a statement. Revenue in the quarter ended Dec. 26 fell 8.5 percent to $4.43 billion.
Excluding some items, Tyco International earned 61 cents a share. The average of 12 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg was for 47 cents on sales of $4.39 billion. Results fell in each of Tyco’s five main divisions, hurt by the strengthening U.S. dollar and weak demand in North America and Europe.

2009 Forecast
For the year ending in September, per-share profit will be $2.28 to $2.50 a share, excluding potential restructuring costs of 8 cents a share, Tyco International said. That’s in line with the previous November forecast that included such costs and was $2.20 to $2.50.
Tyco International decided to exclude the restructuring costs because they aren’t yet set and to make the forecast “as neat and clean as possible,” Chief Executive Officer Ed Breen said on a conference call. As economic conditions become more clear, Tyco will update the forecast on cost cutting, he said. The unchanged $2.50-a-share end of the range reflects a reduced outlook for the electrical and metal unit.
“While the environment is clearly more challenging, I believe we have the appropriate focus and disciplines to address our cost structure and our long-term growth initiatives,” Breen said on the call.
Swiss Move
In the second quarter, total revenue will be $4.2 billion to $4.3 billion, while per-share profit should be 40 cents to 43 cents, excluding about 6 cents in restructuring costs and other expenses, Breen said. Currency translation will shave about $500 million, Breen said.
The electrical and metal products segment will likely have a better second half of year than first as costs improve, Breen said.
“We see Tyco as one of only a few names within industrials that we would buy both relative and absolute,” Scott Davis, a Morgan Stanley analyst, wrote in a note to investors today, citing results and the 2009 forecast. He has an “overweight” rating on the stock.
Tyco International, run from West Windsor, New Jersey, projected on Nov. 11 that first quarter profit from continuing operations excluding some items would be 46 cents to 49 cents a share.

The company said it December it is seeking to move its headquarters to Switzerland, which has an established tax treaty with the U.S.
Director Resignation
Tyco International agreed to sell most of its infrastructure business known as Earth Tech to Aecom Technology Corp. for $510 million in the 2008 second quarter. The company agreed to sell its Ancon building products unit for $174 million in cash in the third quarter.
The company also said today that Admiral Dennis C. Blair has resigned from the board after President Barack Obama appointed him as director of national intelligence.



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Market Share J.C. Penney Bridge Plan Targets Market Share Gains in Downturn

The J.C. Penney bridge plan, initiated in early 2008 to help it mitigate the impact of a slowing economy, has helped the retailer survive the recession and position itself for market share gains.
In discussing 2008 results during a Friday conference call that included lower but a better than expected earnings, the company reported that it cut headquarters and store labor expenses, managing to realign its work functions without the major lay offs many of its competitors have initiated.

In one example, it saved $16 million in selling-related labor costs in December even as it improved customer service scores by more effectively pegging employee hours to peak selling periods. Because it launched its plan at the beginning of 2008, J.C. Penney got a jump on costs before the economic downturn deepened later in the year, so it was in a position not only to cut labor expenses in the critical holiday selling season but also to slash inventories by 10.5%.
And, although it dropped its store opening pace from 50 annually, J.C. Penny did manage to opened 35 new or relocated stores in 2008 while committing $970 million to capital spending, down from $1.2 billion in 2007 and a little below the reduced number of $1 billion it announced under the bridge plan. The company plans to spend about $600 million this year opening 17 new stores, including its first Manhattan location, and renovating existing ones. J.C. Penney is opening new stores in a period when many rivals are closing locations, a point chairman and CEO Mike Ulman made in the call.

Store closings and some outright liquidations, of the Mervyns chain particularly, provide J.C. Penney a ready chance to win market share. So do service disruptions and problems with keeping shelves properly stocked that will arise at other stores as management deals with work force issues in the midst of major layoffs.

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Anheuser Busch InBev

Why "Anheuser-Busch" Hall?

The Current is happy to join with the whole University community in celebrating the Anheuser-Busch Foundation's recent gift of $2.5 million, to underwrite, in part, construction of a new building for the College of Business Administration. While we hope that we may avoid a charge of biting the hand that feeds us, we are nonetheless perturbed to learn that the new building will be christened Anheuser-Busch Hall.
We are constrained to wonder why the new facility will not be called "Anheuser-Busch InBev Hall." That, after all, is the new name of the corporate entity that has contributed, for over 150 years, to the worldwide reputation of St. Louis as the home of what is, arguably, the world's best (certainly the best-selling) beer.
Is the soft-pedaling of the InBev takeover a tacit admission of the bad taste that the beer wars have left in the mouths of St. Louisans? We cannot help but wonder why A-B InBev, and its corporate dependent, the A-B Foundation, have been so studious in ignoring the InBev connection in terms of the Foundation's corporate largesse.
All of this is beside the point. What has caught us off-guard is the fact that the building is to be named for the sponsoring corporation at all. There is subtext to this decision, and we are not pleased thereby.

We understand that the University of Missouri - St. Louis, being a public institution, lacks, to a great degree, the cachet that private institutions of higher education, with their private endowments, enjoy. We appreciate that UM-St. Louis is, in many ways, the red-headed stepchild of public education in Missouri.
We get the fact that, without the charity of a private enterprise, the College of Business Administration's construction effort would be just that much further from realizing its financing goal. We do not feel that the point had to be rammed home quite so bluntly, or so blatantly, by naming the new facility Anheuser-Busch Hall.
If A-B and the College of Business Administration wanted to draw the connection between business education and the business of beer, we submit that a better name might have been "August Anheuser Hall," or "Adolphus Busch Hall," or even "August Anheuser/Adolphus Busch Hall." Any of those choices would have paid tribute to the business leaders who built the brewery that built St. Louis' reputation. Naming the facility "Augustus A. Busch, III Hall," would have at least afforded the opportunity to nickname the building, "The Gussie," the same way the Blanche M. Touhill Performing Arts Center is affectionately known as "The Blanche."
We note that the North Campus quadrangle is bounded, on the south, by Thomas Jefferson Library, and on the east by Clark Hall, named for William Clark; on the northeast stands Lucas Hall, named for St. Louis pioneer Jean-Baptiste-Marie Lucas.
We submit, that if A-B and the College of Business Administration wanted to honor the business heritage of St. Louis, they would have done better to name the new building "Chouteau Hall," which would honor the greatest of St. Louis' entrepreneurial pioneers. That, at least, would have maintained the historical integrity of the system by which UM-St. Louis named its academic buildings.
As it stands, we have to wonder whether A-B's gift actually constitutes a charitable contribution, or an advertising expense.



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